SPX: The Xmas rally? How far can it fall & still manage to close up?

Looks like whether or not we close above 1800 or up 30% for 2013 is all on the Fed from here on out.

If I were a betting man which as a trader I obviously am I would not bet the Fed fumbles the rally.

Considering a potential dip in December and how far we could close down here are the years when SPX was over 20% going into December.

As you can see it is very likely SPX closes green for December based on history with the only years registering a down December being 96, 80, 75 and 55 (flat).

I guess the big risk is a 1980 redux where we dropped 10% during the December month but still managed to close only 3% down.