Home > ES Daily Plan > ES Daiy Plan 051112

ES Daiy Plan 051112

Commentary

E-mini S&Ps are down -8.00 points (-0.59%) this morning on JPMorgan’s $2 billion trading loss and weaker-than-expected Chinese retail sales and industrial production data. Commodity prices are trading lower across the board. The dollar is mildly higher by +0.13 points (+0.16%) on increased safe-haven demand. JPMorgan after Thursday’s close publicly disclosed that it had a $2 billion trading loss on a synthetic credit securities position. JPMorgan’s stock is down about 6% in European pre-market trading.

European stocks are trading lower with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.73%, also undercut by the JPMorgan news, the Chinese economic data, and the fifth day of Greek attempts to form a government. The European Commission today released updated forecasts that the Eurozone economy in 2012 will decline by -0.3%, which was unchanged from its forecast in February. The Commission is forecasting a return to positive growth in 2013 with GDP growth of +1%. The Commission is forecasting GDP growth for this year of -4.7% for Greece, -1.8% for Spain, -1.4% for Italy, and -3.3% for Portugal.

Italy today successfully sold 10 billion euros of Treasury bills, meeting its target and not running into any problems. Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy later today is expected to announce details of a new bank cleanup plan.

The markets today are awaiting talks by Socialist Pasok Leader Venizelos with New Democracy leader Samaras to see if Pasok, New Democracy and Democratic Left can form a coalition government. Mr. Venizelos had positive talks yesterday with Democratic Left leader Kouvelis. Those three parties together easily have a working majority in Parliament that can create a government that intends to affirm the basic tenets of the bailout requirements and keep Greece in the Eurozone.

China released several economic reports overnight. China’s April CPI eased to +3.4% y/y from +3.6% y/y, which was in line with the market consensus. April industrial eased to +11.0% y/y from +11.6% y/y in March and was weaker than the market consensus of +11.7% y/y. April retail sales eased to +14.1% y/y from +15.2% in March and was weaker than market expectations of +15.1%.

Asian stock markets today closed lower across the board: Japan -0.63%, Hong Kong -1.30%, China -0.76%, Taiwan -1.10%, Australia -0.24%, Singapore -0.70%, South Korea -1.51%, India -0.77%

DAX: http://www.forexpros.com/indices/germany-30-advanced-chart

Econ Calendar

8:30 Producer Price Index
9:15 Fed’s Fisher: ‘Texas Banking Conditions’
9:55 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment

Earnings Watch

Notable earnings before today’s open: NVDA

Notable earnings after today’s close: IAG

Open Type

OOR (5:41 AM PST) check stats on OIR biases: https://blackmarkt.wordpress.com/2012/05/06/es-weekly-statistics-update-050612/

Trade Scenarios

*Will take it easy today looking to close out the week. Will definitely wait til after the close. Longs seem to be the hard trade.

RTH PP: 57

Globex PP: 55.5

ONVPOC: 49.25

ONH: 57.75

ONL: 44

Bull/Bear Line: 50-49

– Longs: above 50 looking for 55 (PP), 57.25 (gap fill) and above

– Shorts: below 50 looking for  45-44 (ONL) and below

ES (3 minute, daily) 

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