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ES Daiy Plan 082912

August 29, 2012 Leave a comment

Commentary

In Asia, Japan +0.4%. Hong Kong -0.1%. China -1%. India -0.8%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.5%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow flat. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude -0.7% to $95.63. Gold -0.1% to $1667.40.

http://www.forexpros.com/indices/germany-30-advanced-chart

Econ Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 GDP Q2
8:30 Corporate Profits
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Results of $35B, 5-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book

http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?tz=-7&sort=date&week=2012%2F0513&eur=true&usd=true&jpy=true&gbp=true&chf=true&aud=true&cad=true&nzd=true&cny=true&high=true&medium=true&low=false

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

Earnings Watch

Notable earnings before today’s open: FROHNZJASOJOYYGE

Notable earnings after today’s close: PTIVOWFT

Open Type

IR

Trade Scenarios

RTH PP: 7.75 (IR, 78% chance of tag)

– YR: 8.75
– YIB: 5

– YHI: 12
– YLO: 3.25

– ONH: 10
– ONL: 5.25
– ON Mid: 7.75

Bull/Bear Line:  10

Longs:

Rotational: If 10 becomes support looking for 12 (YHI/R1), 15-16.5 (R2),
Rotational:

PP Failure:

Shorts:

Rotational: If  10 becomes resistance looking for 7.75 (PP), 05.25 (ONL), 03.25 (S1),
Rotational: If 07.75 becomes resistance looking for

PP Failure: Yest LL, 60% prob of 03.25 tag

Stats 

OIR, Op>PP<R1

IR,Op>PP<R1 267
IR,Op>PP<R1 & PP hit 222 83.15%
IR,Op>PP<R1 & R1 hit 102 38.20%

RULES

1. 2 strikes at a level & you’re out, once hit twice in row have to take a 10 minute break

2. 3-4 strikes overall all day & you’re out (depending on size of each trade)

3. NO trading other instruments that you’re unfamiliar with

4. 1.5-2 max loss in ES, 3-4 in NQ,

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ES Stats: Opex Thurs or Fri is low for week <- not even 50/50

August 25, 2012 Leave a comment
Total Opex 68
Prev Thurs or Fri was low for week 31 45.59%
Prev Thurs, Fri or Monday was low for week 38 55.88%
Categories: ES Stats Tags: , ,

ES Daiy Plan 082312

August 24, 2012 Leave a comment

Commentary

In Asia, Japan -1.2%. Hong Kong -1.3%. China -1%. India -0.4%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.3%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow flat. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq flat. Crude -0.4% to $95.86. Gold -0.3% to $1668.60.

http://www.forexpros.com/indices/germany-30-advanced-chart

Econ Calendar

8:30 Durable Goods

http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?tz=-7&sort=date&week=2012%2F0513&eur=true&usd=true&jpy=true&gbp=true&chf=true&aud=true&cad=true&nzd=true&cny=true&high=true&medium=true&low=false

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

Earnings Watch

Notable earnings before today’s open: SOL

Open Type

OR

Trade Scenarios

RTH PP: 10.25

– YR: 10.5
– YIB: 5

– YHI: 08.5
– YLO: 98

– ONH: 02.5
– ONL: 95.25
– ON Mid: 99

Bull/Bear Line: 1402.25 (PP)

Longs:

Rotational: If 02.25 (PP) becomes support looking for 10.25 (PP), 08 (ONL), 04.25 (YLO),
Rotational: If 1400 (ON PP-YHI) becomes support looking for 02.25-02.5 (PP/ONH), 06.25 (R1), 08.5 (YHI)

PP Failure:

Shorts:

Rotational: If  becomes resistance looking for
Rotational: If 1400 (ON PP-YHI) becomes resistance looking for 98 (YLO), 96.5 (NVPOC), 95.75-95.25 (S1-ONL), 93 (

PP Failure: Yesterday LL, 98  has about 72% prob of being hit

Stats 

OOR,Op<PP>S1

OOR,Op<PP>S1 262
OOR,Op<PP>S1 & PP Tag 119 45.42%
OOR,Op<PP>S1 & S1 Tag 137 52.29%

RULES

1. 2 strikes at a level & you’re out, once hit twice in row have to take a 10 minute break

2. 3-4 strikes overall all day & you’re out (depending on size of each trade)

3. NO trading other instruments that you’re unfamiliar with

4. 1.5-2 max loss in ES, 3-4 in NQ,

ES Daiy Plan 081612

August 16, 2012 Leave a comment

Commentary

In Asia, Japan +1.9% to 9093. Hong Kong -0.5% to 19963. China -0.3% to 2112. India -0.4% to 17657.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris -0.0%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.15%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude flat at $94.29. Gold -0.05% to $1605.80.

http://www.forexpros.com/indices/germany-30-advanced-chart

Econ Calendar

8:30 Housing Starts
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 Philly Fed Business Outlook
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?tz=-7&sort=date&week=2012%2F0513&eur=true&usd=true&jpy=true&gbp=true&chf=true&aud=true&cad=true&nzd=true&cny=true&high=true&medium=true&low=false

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

Earnings Watch

Notable earnings before today’s open:DANGDLTRGMEPRGOROSTSHLDWMT

Notable earnings after today’s close: AROAVGOBRCDDRYSGPSMRVL

Open Type

OIR

Trade Scenarios

– RTH PP: 02.75

– YHI: 05.75
– YLO: 99.25

– ONH: 7.75
– ONL: 03
– ON Mid: 05.5

Bull/Bear Line: 1400

Longs:

Rotational: If 1400 becomes support looking for 02.75 (PP), 05.75 (YHI), 07.75 (ONH), 09.25 (NVPOC)
Rotational: If  02.75 (PP) becomes support looking for 05.75 (YHI), 06.25 (R1), 07.75 (ONH), 09.25 (NVPOC)

PP Failure:

Shorts:

Rotational: If 1400 becomes resistance looking for 96.5 (NVPOC)-96.25 (S2), 93.25 (S3), 92 (range support), 90.25 (Gap)
Rotational: If  becomes resistance looking for

PP Failure:

Stats 

OIR,Op>PP<R1

IR,Op>PP<R1 267
IR,Op>PP<R1 & PP hit 222 83.15%
IR,Op>PP<R1 & R1 hit 102 38.20%

RULES

1. 2 strikes at a level & you’re out, once hit twice in row have to take a 10 minute break

2. 3-4 strikes overall all day & you’re out (depending on size of each trade)

3. NO trading other instruments that you’re unfamiliar with

4. 1.5-2 max loss in ES, 3-4 in NQ,

ES Stats: 9AM Close>IBH,11AM Close<Mid… IBL? DLO? about 50/50

August 5, 2012 Leave a comment
9AM Close>IBH
9AM Close>IBH & 11AM Close<Mid 10.44%
9AM Close>IBH & 11AM Close<Mid & 1PM Close<IBL 36.36%
9AM Close>IBH & 11AM Close<Mid & 1PM Close>Mid 45.45%
9AM Close>IBH & 11AM Close<Mid & 1PM Close<Mid 54.55%
9AM Close<IBH & 11AM Close>Mid & IBL is broken by Close 63.64%
9AM Close>IBH & 11AM Close<Mid & DLO is made by 1PM 51.52%
Categories: ES Stats Tags: , , , , , ,