Archive

Archive for September, 2012

ES Daiy Plan 09112

September 11, 2012 Leave a comment

Commentary

In Asia, Japan -0.7%. Hong Kong +0.1%. China -0.7%. India +0.5%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.4%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -0.1%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +0.1% to $96.60. Gold +0.1% to $1732.90.

http://www.forexpros.com/indices/germany-30-advanced-chart

Econ Calendar

7:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
8:30 Trade Balance
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
10:00 Consumer Confidence
1:00 PM Results of $32B, 3-Year Note Auction

http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?tz=-7&sort=date&week=2012%2F0513&eur=true&usd=true&jpy=true&gbp=true&chf=true&aud=true&cad=true&nzd=true&cny=true&high=true&medium=true&low=false

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

Earnings Watch

None

Open Type

IR

Trade Scenarios

RTH PP: 30 (77% prob tag)

– YR: 12.25
– YIB:

– YHI: 38
– YLO: 25.75

– ONH: 32.5
– ONL: 21
– ON Mid: 27

Bull/Bear Line:  27-28

Longs:

Rotational: If 27-28 becomes support looking for 30 (PP), 32.5 (ONH), 34 (R1)
Rotational: If  30 (PP) becomes support looking for 32.5 (ONH), 34 (R1), 38 (YHI)

PP Failure/PP Confirmation:

Shorts:

Rotational: If 30 (PP) becomes resistance looking for 27.5 (PP), 26 (YCL, YLO), 21 (ONL)
Rotational: If 27-28 becomes resistance looking for 26 (YCL,YLO), 22 (S1), 21 (ONL)

PP Failure/PP Confirmation: LL, Close < PP, 60% prob of 25.75 tag

Stats 

OIR, Op>PP<S1

IR,Op>PP<R1 267
IR,Op>PP<R1 & PP hit 222 83.15%
IR,Op>PP<R1 & R1 hit 102 38.20%

RULES

1. 2 strikes at a level & you’re out, once hit twice in row have to take a 10 minute break

2. 3-4 strikes overall all day & you’re out (depending on size of each trade)

3. NO trading other instruments that you’re unfamiliar with

4. 1.5-2 max loss in ES, 3-4 in NQ,

Advertisements

ES Daiy Plan 091012

September 10, 2012 Leave a comment

Commentary

In Asia, Japan flat at 8869. Hong Kong +0.1% to 19827. China +0.3% to 2135. India +0.1% to 17767.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt flat.
Futures at 7:00: Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.15%. Crude flat at $96.42. Gold -0.3% to $1733.50.

http://www.forexpros.com/indices/germany-30-advanced-chart

Econ Calendar

10:00 Employment Trends Index
3:00 PM Consumer Credit

http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?tz=-7&sort=date&week=2012%2F0513&eur=true&usd=true&jpy=true&gbp=true&chf=true&aud=true&cad=true&nzd=true&cny=true&high=true&medium=true&low=false

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

Earnings Watch

Notable earnings before today’s open: PPHM

Open Type

OR

Trade Scenarios

RTH PP: 36.25 (75%)

– YR: 6.5
– YIB:

– YHI: 38.75
– YLO: 32.25

– ONH: 38.75
– ONL: 33
– ON Mid: 35.5

Bull/Bear Line:  35-36

Longs:

Rotational: If 35-36 becomes support looking for 38.75, 40 (R1)
Rotational: If  becomes support looking for

PP Failure/PP Confirmation: HH, Close above PP 72% Probability of 38.75 (YHI) tagging

Shorts:

Rotational: If 35-36 becomes resistance looking for 32.75 (ONL-YLO), 31-30 (Gap Fill/NVPOC)
Rotational: If becomes resistance looking for

PP Failure/PP Confirmation:

Stats 

OIR, Op<PP>S1

IR,Op<PP>S1 256
IR,Op<PP>S1 & PP Tag 216 84.38%
IR,Op<PP>S1 & S1 Tag 137 53.52%

RULES

1. 2 strikes at a level & you’re out, once hit twice in row have to take a 10 minute break

2. 3-4 strikes overall all day & you’re out (depending on size of each trade)

3. NO trading other instruments that you’re unfamiliar with

4. 1.5-2 max loss in ES, 3-4 in NQ,

ES Daiy Plan 090612

September 6, 2012 Leave a comment

Commentary

In Asia, Japan flat. Hong Kong +0.3%. China +0.7%. India +0.2%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.6%. Paris +1%. Frankfurt +1.3%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.5%. S&P +0.6%. Nasdaq +0.6%. Crude +1.2% to $96.48. Gold +1% to $1711.60.

http://www.forexpros.com/indices/germany-30-advanced-chart

Econ Calendar

7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:15 ADP Jobs Report
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
10:00 Quarterly Services Report
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?tz=-7&sort=date&week=2012%2F0513&eur=true&usd=true&jpy=true&gbp=true&chf=true&aud=true&cad=true&nzd=true&cny=true&high=true&medium=true&low=false

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

Earnings Watch

Notable earnings before today’s open: HOVNAV

Notable earnings after today’s close: SWHCULTA

Open Type

OR

Trade Scenarios

RTH PP: 03.5 (If we OIR, 74% prob of PP tag)

– YR: 8.5
– YIB:

– YHI: 08.25
– YLO: 99.75

– ONH: 014
– ONL: 03.25
– ON Mid: 08.75

Bull/Bear Line:  09-10

Longs:

Rotational: If 10 becomes support looking for 14 (ONH), 16.5 (NVPOC), 20+
Rotational: If  becomes support looking for

PP Failure/PP Confirmation:

Shorts:

Rotational: If 09 becomes resistance looking for 07 (S1), 03.5 (PP),
Rotational: If becomes resistance looking for

PP Failure/PP Confirmation:

Stats 

OIR, Op>R2<R3

OOR,Op<R2<R3 31
OOR,Op>R2<R3 & R2 Tag 21 67.74%
OOR,Op>R2<R3 & R3 Tag 23 74.19%

Gap

Gap 10-8 42
Gap 10-8 & Gap Fill 17 40.48%
Gap 10-8 & 1/2 Gap Fill 26 61.90%

RULES

1. 2 strikes at a level & you’re out, once hit twice in row have to take a 10 minute break

2. 3-4 strikes overall all day & you’re out (depending on size of each trade)

3. NO trading other instruments that you’re unfamiliar with

4. 1.5-2 max loss in ES, 3-4 in NQ,