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SPX 2013 30% Return?

July 14, 2013 Leave a comment

Possible…

Since 1950 there have been 5 instances where SPX finished the year above 30% from the previous year.

Let’s look at some data.

Correlation between the 2 years weekly returns so far: .21

1995 27th week return for year: 21.14%

2013 27th week return for year: 14.57%

spx_wk1995_2013

spx_wk_ret1995_2013

BUT… in most instances when SPX end of year returns exceeded 30% it was at the beginning of a strong bottoming trough in earnings.

earningsspx071213

On a tangential note 1995 was the year of the OJ Simpson trial. 2013 is the year of the Zimmerman Martin trial…

Categories: Public Posts Tags: , , , ,

SPX Annual Returns, Earnings, Earnings Yield

July 12, 2013 Leave a comment

spx_earns071313

July NFP Preview

What can we expect from Friday’s NFP?

Not good.

nfp070213

 

 

 

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So for the past four years the Actuals have come in below the Consensus resulting in a negative beat 4 out of the 4 instances.

What have the returns looked like on the NFP event for the past 4 Julys?

Avg Return is -1.28

Not sure if the market will interpret a miss as a buy because Taper Off or a beat as Taper On and therefore Sell.

nfp2_070213

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