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July NFP Preview

What can we expect from Friday’s NFP?

Not good.

nfp070213

 

 

 

nfp_chart070213

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So for the past four years the Actuals have come in below the Consensus resulting in a negative beat 4 out of the 4 instances.

What have the returns looked like on the NFP event for the past 4 Julys?

Avg Return is -1.28

Not sure if the market will interpret a miss as a buy because Taper Off or a beat as Taper On and therefore Sell.

nfp2_070213

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