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Posts Tagged ‘2013’

What I learned in 2013

January 3, 2014 3 comments

Here’s what I learned and the areas of opportunity moving into 2014:

1.  Models models models 2013 was the year I started developing and incorporating models into my trading. This new evolving tool led to a banner year for me. In 2014 I am looking to expand on my programming skills. But remember “The skill of the trader is far more important than any model (at this time)”. Trading is still more Art than Science.

2. Subscription service is not for me. I tested this avenue but realized I’d rather focus on my trading. It was an invaluable learning experience and I am grateful to @StevenPlace for his partnership and mentor-ship. I still offer my trades, expertise and day trading model to a select few members but will not be actively marketing a dedicated service.

3. Optimism as a Default Setting.  HT @ReformedBroker Unfortunately I have always gravitated towards the negativity/downside/darkside/risk mainly because of my conservative upbringing. So I’ve had to work hard these past few years to rewire my brain to first look to the positive/upside/theforce/reward in everything If you lose on a trade… next. I lost over $20000 on 1 bad trade alone and over  $4000 this year on order mis-entry mistakes. Lesson learned, safeguards built, Next!

4. Trading as a living is still a marathon. The longer I trade (3-4 years now) the more I realize it probably takes at least 1 decade to become proficient at trading assets. This is mostly due to all the nuances in every stage of an economic cycle. If you don’t plan on dedicating yourself to at least 5-10 years of learning curve you shouldn’t expect to doing this for a living. You will need to well capitalized to survive the 5+ years of tuition you’re going to be paying Mr Market.

5. Still looking for the home run. 2013 was a year of double digit returns for both equity and stock portfolios. It’s great for wealth building but I’m still hunting for the next next wealth creation opportunity. Hopefully I’ll get that pitch in 2014. Patience and perseverance are key.

Best of luck in 2014!

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SPX Model Projections for December and End of Year

November 30, 2013 Leave a comment

*model still in alpha test stage

The SPX model performed perfectly in forecasting a positive November and target.

My SPX model predictions:

– November close: STRONG probability of positive month.

– SPX close above 1800 for December (chart below).

– End of 2013: STRONG probability of close above 1800 possibly above 1850.

– 2 likely scenarios: 1. Close over 1800 or 2. Close over 1850

Known Risks to the model projections:

– Taper/Interest Rates (Fed really is the only risk)

– Dissapointing Holiday Retail

spx113013

 

SPX Model Projections for November and End of Year

November 1, 2013 Leave a comment

*model still in alpha test stage

The SPX model for October performed poorly in forecasting a very strong October. The model actually predicted a negative October and was about 100 pts off. Oops.

My SPX model predictions:

– November close: STRONG probability of positive month.

– SPX close above 1800 for November (chart below).

– End of 2013: STRONG probability of close above 1800 possibly above 1850.

Known Risks to the model projections:

– Taper/Interest Rates

– Fed Chairman speculation/announcement

– US Earnings

– Weak Holiday Retail

spx103113

 

SPX Model Projections for October and End of Year

October 5, 2013 Leave a comment

*model still in alpha test stage

The SPX model for September performed well in forecasting a positive close for September despite August’s weakness. SPX did close above 1666 around 1682.

My SPX model predictions:

– October close: STRONG probability of negative month.

– SPX close around 1656 for September (chart below).

– End of 2013: STRONG probability of close above 1750 possible 1775.

Risks to the model projections:

– Taper/Interest Rates

– Government Shutdown/Debt Ceiling

– Fed Chairman speculation/announcement

– Continued weak US economic data

– US Earnings

spx100513spx_oct2013

September 2013 Model Projected Returns

September 1, 2013 Leave a comment

*model still in alpha test stage

My SPX model predictions for September are below:

– A STRONG (70%+ greater probability) projected positive month for September.

– SPX closing around 1666 for September (chart below).

Risks to the model projections:

1. Taper/Interest Rates

2. Middle East unrest (Syria, Egypt, WWIII)

3. Debt Ceiling

4. Fed Chairman speculation/announcement

5. Continued weak US economic data/September negative seasonality

6. Europe and Asia rebound slowing or worse faltering

spx_sept_projections

SPX 2013 Returns through August v. Avg. Historical Returns

avg_ret_sept_ret090113

SPX 2013 30% Return?

July 14, 2013 Leave a comment

Possible…

Since 1950 there have been 5 instances where SPX finished the year above 30% from the previous year.

Let’s look at some data.

Correlation between the 2 years weekly returns so far: .21

1995 27th week return for year: 21.14%

2013 27th week return for year: 14.57%

spx_wk1995_2013

spx_wk_ret1995_2013

BUT… in most instances when SPX end of year returns exceeded 30% it was at the beginning of a strong bottoming trough in earnings.

earningsspx071213

On a tangential note 1995 was the year of the OJ Simpson trial. 2013 is the year of the Zimmerman Martin trial…

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