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Posts Tagged ‘market’

SPX negative in January after a big 2013. What can we expect from February?

February 1, 2014 Leave a comment

It’s 50/50 we’re going to be negative or positive in February from historical data.

Although given we had a double digit returns year the previous year. It bodes well equities will stage a comeback in February.

In fact I dug even deeper and it is very likely (greater than 60%) we’re going to retest SPX January lows in December.

feb2014_ret

January Following a 25%+ Previous Year

January 18, 2014 Leave a comment

jan_return011814

When we drop expecting a 8-10% correction

March 27, 2013 Leave a comment

This is a follow-up to this SPX topping blog posts: https://blackmarkt.wordpress.com/2013/03/25/follow-up-to-spx-bull-market-top-post/

We’re still melting up and every dip is an opportunity is to buy. I guess the US truly is the only place where there are zero problems while investors are fleeing the day to day volatility in Euroland and AAPL.

I decided to look at possible pullback zones in the SPX and it looks like if we top out here & retrace back to the average pullback bottom (10%) we may be looking at low 1400 SPX.

I know that feels like a long way away from the here and now. But it always feels like that when you’re looking for some sort of mean reversion and when you’re in it it always feels like the market shouldn’t just be going straight down. Such is the emotional swings in the market.

Chart below shows 8% zone pullback target 10% is around 1400 SPX

spx_032713

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Follow-up to SPX Bull Market Top Post

March 25, 2013 Leave a comment

A follow-up to my post about SPX topping here.

Just did more research on SPX and looks like it topped when it breached a 100% move. We’re currently around 135% since the 2009 bottom.

Who knows where we go from here but market is ripe for a deep pullback.

SPX032513_2bullmarkets

 

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Is this a top in the SPX?

March 23, 2013 1 comment

I’ve unscientifically color coded with percentages for each SPX up-move leg. SPX seems to like to move in 30% & 16% moves.

Check out these leg segment breakdowns since the 2009 bottom.

So the big question is are we topping out? And will the Europe’s Cyprus problems be blamed for a sell-off?

es032313

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