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Posts Tagged ‘September’

SPX Model Projections for October and End of Year

October 5, 2013 Leave a comment

*model still in alpha test stage

The SPX model for September performed well in forecasting a positive close for September despite August’s weakness. SPX did close above 1666 around 1682.

My SPX model predictions:

– October close: STRONG probability of negative month.

– SPX close around 1656 for September (chart below).

– End of 2013: STRONG probability of close above 1750 possible 1775.

Risks to the model projections:

– Taper/Interest Rates

– Government Shutdown/Debt Ceiling

– Fed Chairman speculation/announcement

– Continued weak US economic data

– US Earnings

spx100513spx_oct2013

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September 2013 Model Projected Returns

September 1, 2013 Leave a comment

*model still in alpha test stage

My SPX model predictions for September are below:

– A STRONG (70%+ greater probability) projected positive month for September.

– SPX closing around 1666 for September (chart below).

Risks to the model projections:

1. Taper/Interest Rates

2. Middle East unrest (Syria, Egypt, WWIII)

3. Debt Ceiling

4. Fed Chairman speculation/announcement

5. Continued weak US economic data/September negative seasonality

6. Europe and Asia rebound slowing or worse faltering

spx_sept_projections

SPX 2013 Returns through August v. Avg. Historical Returns

avg_ret_sept_ret090113