SPX August Returns

Yes the market is on a tear. It’s in a bull market yada yada yada…

Since 1950:

On average August returns are slightly negative -.01%.

It is common knowledge that August is seasonably weak along with September. Below is a chart of SPX returns from 1980:

Here what historically has happened when SPX finished July over 5% and over 15% for the year through July.

So odds favor a pullback into August with a 60% probability that August closes red and average return of -1%.