SPX Model Projections for December and End of Year

*model still in alpha test stage

The SPX model performed perfectly in forecasting a positive November and target.

My SPX model predictions:

– November close: STRONG probability of positive month.

– SPX close above 1800 for December (chart below).

– End of 2013: STRONG probability of close above 1800 possibly above 1850.

– 2 likely scenarios: 1. Close over 1800 or 2. Close over 1850

Known Risks to the model projections:

– Taper/Interest Rates (Fed really is the only risk)

– Dissapointing Holiday Retail

 

SPX Model Projections for November and End of Year

*model still in alpha test stage

The SPX model for October performed poorly in forecasting a very strong October. The model actually predicted a negative October and was about 100 pts off. Oops.

My SPX model predictions:

– November close: STRONG probability of positive month.

– SPX close above 1800 for November (chart below).

– End of 2013: STRONG probability of close above 1800 possibly above 1850.

Known Risks to the model projections:

– Taper/Interest Rates

– Fed Chairman speculation/announcement

– US Earnings

– Weak Holiday Retail

 

SPX Model Projections for October and End of Year

*model still in alpha test stage

The SPX model for September performed well in forecasting a positive close for September despite August’s weakness. SPX did close above 1666 around 1682.

My SPX model predictions:

– October close: STRONG probability of negative month.

– SPX close around 1656 for September (chart below).

– End of 2013: STRONG probability of close above 1750 possible 1775.

Risks to the model projections:

– Taper/Interest Rates

– Government Shutdown/Debt Ceiling

– Fed Chairman speculation/announcement

– Continued weak US economic data

– US Earnings

September 2013 Model Projected Returns

*model still in alpha test stage

My SPX model predictions for September are below:

– A STRONG (70%+ greater probability) projected positive month for September.

– SPX closing around 1666 for September (chart below).

Risks to the model projections:

1. Taper/Interest Rates

2. Middle East unrest (Syria, Egypt, WWIII)

3. Debt Ceiling

4. Fed Chairman speculation/announcement

5. Continued weak US economic data/September negative seasonality

6. Europe and Asia rebound slowing or worse faltering

SPX 2013 Returns through August v. Avg. Historical Returns

SPX August Returns

Yes the market is on a tear. It’s in a bull market yada yada yada…

Since 1950:

On average August returns are slightly negative -.01%.

It is common knowledge that August is seasonably weak along with September. Below is a chart of SPX returns from 1980:

Here what historically has happened when SPX finished July over 5% and over 15% for the year through July.

So odds favor a pullback into August with a 60% probability that August closes red and average return of -1%.