SPX Model Projections for December and End of Year

*model still in alpha test stage

The SPX model performed perfectly in forecasting a positive November and target.

My SPX model predictions:

– November close: STRONG probability of positive month.

– SPX close above 1800 for December (chart below).

– End of 2013: STRONG probability of close above 1800 possibly above 1850.

– 2 likely scenarios: 1. Close over 1800 or 2. Close over 1850

Known Risks to the model projections:

– Taper/Interest Rates (Fed really is the only risk)

– Dissapointing Holiday Retail

 

SPX Model Projections for November and End of Year

*model still in alpha test stage

The SPX model for October performed poorly in forecasting a very strong October. The model actually predicted a negative October and was about 100 pts off. Oops.

My SPX model predictions:

– November close: STRONG probability of positive month.

– SPX close above 1800 for November (chart below).

– End of 2013: STRONG probability of close above 1800 possibly above 1850.

Known Risks to the model projections:

– Taper/Interest Rates

– Fed Chairman speculation/announcement

– US Earnings

– Weak Holiday Retail

 

SPX Model Projections for October and End of Year

*model still in alpha test stage

The SPX model for September performed well in forecasting a positive close for September despite August’s weakness. SPX did close above 1666 around 1682.

My SPX model predictions:

– October close: STRONG probability of negative month.

– SPX close around 1656 for September (chart below).

– End of 2013: STRONG probability of close above 1750 possible 1775.

Risks to the model projections:

– Taper/Interest Rates

– Government Shutdown/Debt Ceiling

– Fed Chairman speculation/announcement

– Continued weak US economic data

– US Earnings